The Ukrainian front is entering a new phase of dangerous escalation following yesterday's (10/3) Ukrainian attack with British Storm Shadow missiles in Bryansk, Russia, which left six dead and 37 wounded. The strike was a demonstration of force—the missiles fell in the busy center of a peaceful city. The Storm Shadows arrived one after another. The hit was carried out in broad daylight, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wanted the image to be recorded.
A reconnaissance drone recorded the strikes from the air. Social media quickly filled with videos from different angles: powerful explosions, burning cars, people lying on the pavement, and panicked citizens trying to find shelter. Ukraine admitted responsibility for the attack, stating the target was a military production facility. However, according to Russian sources, the missiles also hit civilian targets, sparking strong reactions at the United Nations. Zelensky, who reportedly gave the order for the attack, spoke publicly about the results just minutes after the strike. He also confirmed that Ukrainian forces used air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles. The attack was carried out following aerial reconnaissance by the Unmanned Strike Systems Regiment. In fact, he also published a relevant video of the hit.
The target of the attack
Zelensky stated that the target was the "Kremniy El" microelectronics factory in Bryansk. This particular factory specializes in the production of discrete semiconductors and integrated circuits. These products are considered critical for the operation of modern high-precision weapons, as they essentially constitute the "nervous system" and "brain" of weapon systems such as the Russian Iskander missile. The regional authorities of Bryansk characterized the incident as a terrorist attack. The ambassador of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Rodion Miroshnik, stated that Kyiv's actions aim to shift Western attention from the Middle East back to Ukraine.
"Barbaric strikes"
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described the missile attack on Bryansk as "barbaric." Commenting on the strike, he stated that Moscow views such actions as further confirmation of the goals of the ongoing "special military operation." "The special operation is being conducted to prevent the Kyiv regime from continuing such barbaric actions. The demilitarization of Kyiv and the deprivation of the ability to carry out such attacks is one of the goals of the SVO," he said. Peskov also added that the launch of Storm Shadow missiles toward the Bryansk region could not have taken place without the participation of specialists from the United Kingdom! "It is clear that the launch of these missiles would not be possible without British specialists. We know this very well and of course, we take it into account," he noted.
Western weapons
The Storm Shadow missiles are of British-French manufacture and are long-range air-launched cruise missiles. The choice of this weapon system, according to analysts, may indicate that Kyiv's key supporters in London and Paris are pushing for more dynamic military actions. It is noteworthy that the attack took place one day after a telephone conversation between the presidents of Russia and the United States. This fact raised questions about whether the US provided targeting information to Ukrainian forces.
The role of Starlink
Retired colonel and member of the Academy of Military Sciences Alexander Bartosh stated that the United States has likely not deactivated the Starlink satellite systems. According to him, Starlink constitutes a key communication and targeting system for Ukrainian missiles and drones. "This allows Ukrainian forces to use data for attacks on Russian cities and targets," he stated. However, other experts do not agree with this assessment. Retired captain first rank and doctor of military sciences Konstantin Sivkov stated that the European Union possesses its own satellite surveillance systems and that the attack could have been based on European data rather than American.
Questions for the air defense
Military political scientist Alexander Khramchikhin does not believe that external information was necessary for the attack. As he noted, the factory is located only 154 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. "Do you think the Ukrainian forces needed foreign information to hit such a close target?" he said. However, he raised another important question: where was the Russian air defense? In his view, the air defense in Russia is not sufficient to cover the entire territory.
Possible retaliation
Analysts argue that Russia may respond with massive strikes on Ukraine's strategic infrastructure. Military analyst and editor-in-chief of National Defense magazine Igor Korotchenko stated that a possible response could be the destruction of Ukraine's energy system. "Zelenskyy and his circle constitute a machine for producing evil. The first step is to cut off the power," he said. In his view, the complete destruction of Ukrainian energy infrastructure could be a response for Bryansk. Meanwhile, Russian Duma deputy Dmitry Belik stated that the attack on Bryansk might have been planned in advance with the aim of maximizing damage to civilians. "The attack on Bryansk is a war crime," he noted. At the same time, the deputy of the Duma Defense Committee Andrei Kolesnik stated that Russia's potential response could include strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers. "Moscow will certainly not leave the attack on Bryansk unanswered. However, only our leadership will decide what the response will be. I believe the best option would be to hit the enemy's decision-making centers or completely cut off the weapon supply chains," he stated. According to him, Russia should move to preemptive actions rather than simply limiting itself to responding to the actions of the Ukrainian side.
The attack and military details
According to reports, approximately ten Storm Shadow missiles were used in the attack. These missiles have a range between 300 and 400 kilometers. At least five aircraft of the Ukrainian air force reportedly approached the missile launch point simultaneously. This, according to military analysts, suggests that Russian aerial reconnaissance and air defense systems failed to detect the attack in time.
Who is behind the attack
Political scientist Sergei Stankevich stated that questions are primarily directed toward Britain. As he said, the Storm Shadow missiles are of British manufacture and their targeting requires technical support from the manufacturers. "Without coordination with the missile manufacturers, such an attack would not be possible," he argued. According to him, responsibility for the losses and damage to civilian targets is borne not only by the Ukrainian forces but also by Zelensky's European allies.
New phase in the war
Analysts estimate that the use of Storm Shadow missiles in a city far from the front may signal the entry of the conflict into a new and more dangerous phase. In their view, this development shows that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may acquire an even greater international dimension. Russia has already modified its nuclear doctrine in 2024, which allows the use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state if it attacks Russia with the help of a nuclear power! This fact makes developments even more dangerous, as the fear of further escalation of the conflict increases.
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